2010 ALCS Preview

The Yankees dodged a bullet as the other ALDS series was stretched to 5 games, forcing both teams to use their ace in the win to advance game, ultimately shoving Cliff Lee back to the 3rd game of the ALCS. You are kidding yourself if you do not recognize how well that plays in the favor of the Rangers. How? If you're the Yankees you are hoping to earn a split on the road, right? Right. If you're Texas and you settle for said split at home, you've got your ace in a pivotal game 3. That said, the Yankees have made the best move possible to combat Lee by starting Andy Pettitte in the home opener to shift the balance.

For the Rangers to win they must continue to exploit the Yankees' pitchers' and catchers' inability to throw out their base runners (8 SB and none caught stealing.) Game 1 starter, C.J. Wilson is no slouch (15 W, 3.35 ERA during the regular season but his line vs. the Bronx Bombers is checkered - 3 starts, 1 CG, 14.1 IP, 27 base-runners, and a 5.65 ERA.) Which C.J. Wilson will show up tonight? Interesting tid-bit, C.J. lives a straight-edge lifestyle which is interesting to hear about considering the debauchery that many of the pros partake in. Maybe I care a little more than most because of my life choices?

The bullpen. It's an understatement that Texas has a dominant bullpen but other than the ageless Darren Oliver (4G, 4+IP, 0.00 ERA, 7ks vs. Yankees) the rest have been hit and hit hard. Baseball fans know that the Yankees tend to struggle a bit with the plus fastball (who doesn't) but these are familiar arms that have walked their fair share vs the Bombers.

On offense, Kinsler is getting hot at the right time. The 2B had a torrid ALDS and is turning the corner towards getting healthy. Josh Hamilton missing almost all of September has been a step behind in the ALDS - we'll see how the extra time off impacts his healing. Nelson Cruz (3 HR during 2010 vs. Yankees) was a beast vs the Yankees and their best hitter was Jorge Cantu - who has been irrelevant of late so it will be interesting to see if Cantu sees significant action in this series.

For the Yankees, it starts with pitching and defense. The song that wins every WS trophy is a familiar tune in the Bronx for good reason. The starters, anchored by CC and Pettitte are as rock solid as it gets. Interestingly, the Yanks have placed Phil Hughes in the game 2 role. Hughes was impressive in his post season starting debut vs the Twins and starting the big righty in Texas makes perfect sense for three reasons

1. Break up the lefties.
2. Space out the starts between Hughes and Burnett - it's fair to assume that Sabathia and Pettitte will go very deep into their respective games. Hughes and Burnett will likely have shorter leashes so if Girardi needs to go to a long man in game 2, there's an off day + another game in between before Burnett takes the hill.
3. The Rangers are power hitters, any time there's a righty starting at Yankee Stadium makes me leery of the HR ball w/the short RF fence.

The bullpen was hardly used in the DS but when it was, it was largely effective, notably Boone Logan and David Robertson who got some key outs early in games. Rivera was lights out, which was good for Yankee fans considering his shaky September. The long men may get some work this time around, especially if AJ Burnett doesn't fare too well - he has not thrown a pitch in a real game in what seems to be forever (a blessing for some Yankees fans).

Offensively, the Yankees need to stick w/what works. Take pitches, work counts, and make the other pitcher labor more than he needs to. Robinson Cano has been the most stable force all season on both sides of the ball (3 errors? You read correctly) but he'll always be known for his offense. This year was no aberration and I look for him to continue his hot hitting as he is unphased at the plate. I also will predict now that Cano will be the #3 hitter next season, dropping Tex to #5.

All in, Yankees in 6. Lee getting only 2 starts and not starting until game 3 will severely hurt the Rangers chances of advancing and other than speed, this is not a matchup that favors the Rangers much, if at all. They've had a solid run but their marathon's just about over.