2010 ALCS Preview

The Yankees dodged a bullet as the other ALDS series was stretched to 5 games, forcing both teams to use their ace in the win to advance game, ultimately shoving Cliff Lee back to the 3rd game of the ALCS. You are kidding yourself if you do not recognize how well that plays in the favor of the Rangers. How? If you're the Yankees you are hoping to earn a split on the road, right? Right. If you're Texas and you settle for said split at home, you've got your ace in a pivotal game 3. That said, the Yankees have made the best move possible to combat Lee by starting Andy Pettitte in the home opener to shift the balance.

For the Rangers to win they must continue to exploit the Yankees' pitchers' and catchers' inability to throw out their base runners (8 SB and none caught stealing.) Game 1 starter, C.J. Wilson is no slouch (15 W, 3.35 ERA during the regular season but his line vs. the Bronx Bombers is checkered - 3 starts, 1 CG, 14.1 IP, 27 base-runners, and a 5.65 ERA.) Which C.J. Wilson will show up tonight? Interesting tid-bit, C.J. lives a straight-edge lifestyle which is interesting to hear about considering the debauchery that many of the pros partake in. Maybe I care a little more than most because of my life choices?

The bullpen. It's an understatement that Texas has a dominant bullpen but other than the ageless Darren Oliver (4G, 4+IP, 0.00 ERA, 7ks vs. Yankees) the rest have been hit and hit hard. Baseball fans know that the Yankees tend to struggle a bit with the plus fastball (who doesn't) but these are familiar arms that have walked their fair share vs the Bombers.

On offense, Kinsler is getting hot at the right time. The 2B had a torrid ALDS and is turning the corner towards getting healthy. Josh Hamilton missing almost all of September has been a step behind in the ALDS - we'll see how the extra time off impacts his healing. Nelson Cruz (3 HR during 2010 vs. Yankees) was a beast vs the Yankees and their best hitter was Jorge Cantu - who has been irrelevant of late so it will be interesting to see if Cantu sees significant action in this series.

For the Yankees, it starts with pitching and defense. The song that wins every WS trophy is a familiar tune in the Bronx for good reason. The starters, anchored by CC and Pettitte are as rock solid as it gets. Interestingly, the Yanks have placed Phil Hughes in the game 2 role. Hughes was impressive in his post season starting debut vs the Twins and starting the big righty in Texas makes perfect sense for three reasons

1. Break up the lefties.
2. Space out the starts between Hughes and Burnett - it's fair to assume that Sabathia and Pettitte will go very deep into their respective games. Hughes and Burnett will likely have shorter leashes so if Girardi needs to go to a long man in game 2, there's an off day + another game in between before Burnett takes the hill.
3. The Rangers are power hitters, any time there's a righty starting at Yankee Stadium makes me leery of the HR ball w/the short RF fence.

The bullpen was hardly used in the DS but when it was, it was largely effective, notably Boone Logan and David Robertson who got some key outs early in games. Rivera was lights out, which was good for Yankee fans considering his shaky September. The long men may get some work this time around, especially if AJ Burnett doesn't fare too well - he has not thrown a pitch in a real game in what seems to be forever (a blessing for some Yankees fans).

Offensively, the Yankees need to stick w/what works. Take pitches, work counts, and make the other pitcher labor more than he needs to. Robinson Cano has been the most stable force all season on both sides of the ball (3 errors? You read correctly) but he'll always be known for his offense. This year was no aberration and I look for him to continue his hot hitting as he is unphased at the plate. I also will predict now that Cano will be the #3 hitter next season, dropping Tex to #5.

All in, Yankees in 6. Lee getting only 2 starts and not starting until game 3 will severely hurt the Rangers chances of advancing and other than speed, this is not a matchup that favors the Rangers much, if at all. They've had a solid run but their marathon's just about over.

2010 NLCS Preview

The money is on the "phavorite" here and the question truly is, do the Giants have a shot against the Phillies? If yes, then how? Well the answer is it's easier said than done but the Giants need to hang in there against the starters and hope to get into the Philly bullpen. The achilles heel for the Phils is their shaky bullpen led by Jose Contreras. Yes, you read correctly. Those who are not in the know have missed Contreras as the stablizing force for the Phils who even stepped in and closed games during one of Brad Lidge's disappearing acts.

Position by Position - does it really matter? There's no firepower in SF to match the right side of the Philly infield. SS is a virtual wash on both sides of the ball and 3B is virtually irrelevant to the argument. Defense is key and the Giants will not be afforded the luxury of Brooks Conrad in this series. The outfield is one that keeps me guessing, at least from the SF standpoint. They are loaded w/castoffs, some which have played over their head, but they all seem to contribute at the plate. OF defense, particularly Pat Burrell's (does anyone care about the story line of Pat the Bat returning to Philly? Maybe a little?) will be shaky but it's on par w/Raul Ibañez so there's a wash.

The focus is on the game 1 matchup of Halladay vs. Lincecum. It's hard to imagine either one replicating their first playoff start (no-hitter and two-hitter, respectively) but it is conceivable that these aces will take the bump deep into the game while being very stingy to the opposing team. The rest of the starting pitching is certainly noteworthy with the "other" Roy, Oswalt backing Halladay, followed by Hamels (2.23 ERA in the 2nd half!) Don't sleep on the Giants though, their starters can bring it. From Cain to Sanchez to rookie Madison Bumgarner the team is deep in their rotation.

The bullpens are iffy for both teams. Brian Wilson was so solid all season (led the league w/48 saves) and had a spotty NLDS to say the least. Wilson, however, is still more reliable than the aforementioned Brad Lidge, I think...If the starters falter, the focus will be on some middle men that have not been battle tested in October so that may come into play over the next week or so.

Lastly, the Phillies will likely run and test Buster Posey and the Giants' staff at holding them in place. The Giants are basically a station to station team and Carlos Ruiz is likely to not be tested too much behind the dish.

When it's all said and done, Philly takes this series in 5 games. My expectation is that Hamels will implode in game 3 and things will drag on for another game.